Return Of The Jedi

"The hell with giving people what they want. Give them what they need."--John Mellencamp

Boy, was I wrong. And I don't mean just a little wrong, I mean six ways to Sunday and in every way possible. On January 18th of this year, I wrote a column (http://sumopopblog.blogspot.com/2010/01/cant-anybody-here-play-this-game-ii.html) about all the ways the Democrats had screwed up since the 2008 election and how nothing big would ever get done again. I was full of gloom, despair and agony over watching the multi-left footed leaders of the majority party try to advance health care legislation, and their inability to hold Teddy Kennedy's Senate seat which fell to Republican Scott Brown on January 12th, 2010. I went on about how the Dem's couldn't run a campaign or stand up for what they purport to believe in. And then Sunday night, they passed health care, and I proceeded to happily eat a big plate of crow.

So, how did they accomplish this? First, President Obama reminded me of who I voted for in the first place. I suppose I had started to forget. During the many grueling months of the health care debate, he seemed passive, unwilling to fully engage and be forceful. After the special election loss in Massachusetts, I expected him to at best make an effort to nibble around the edges on health care and maybe pass some minor legislation relating to pre-existing conditions, or closing the "doughnut hole" in Medicare for seniors. It would have been difficult for politicians on either side of the aisle to vote against either of those recommendations. And that's all I thought he would do. And who would blame him? His poll numbers had dropped 15+ points, liberals and conservatives were angry as hell at him, so why not just walk away?

Instead, in a true act of political courage, he dove back in and fought for what he believed in. And he fought hard. I have no idea what this bill will do for Democrats in the 2010 mid-term elections. Conventional wisdom states that it will be a blood bath for their party and they may even lose both houses of congress. The whole thing could become an albatross around Obama's neck and result in a single term presidency. Of course, if I know this, then he certainly did too. Which is why I call it courage. He put what he thought was the best thing for the people ahead of his own job security and--even more amazingly--got enough House Democrats to go along with him.

He did this by taking on the Republican opposition twice in front of television cameras. The first time at a House Republican retreat where he went one on 140 something, and came away looking like he had cleaned their clocks. Secondly, at the Health Care Summit he brought both sides together for a frank and relatively even exchange of ideas. Then, he took his act on the road. Barnstorming across the country to better explain his vision for health care. Slowly, the polls started swinging back in his direction. And while these polls never reached the point of favoring his health care plan overall, the creeping momentum gave courage (or guilt) to enough House Democrats to bring this thing over the finish line.

In my previous grim faced, Dem bashing column that I referenced earlier, I had compared Obama to Lebron James. A great player who lacked sufficient assistance from his teammates to win a championship. Well, I now have to amend that statement. He has Nancy Pelosi. Yeah, I know, this is the point where anyone who is reading this will either start throwing shit at their computer screen if not kicking in their monitor altogether. But think about this: The first female Speaker Of The House didn't just get health care passed once, she did it twice! The first time by a narrow margin in a House created bill that included a public option. The second time, she had to get the Senate bill passed with assurances from that body of congress that they would fix the bullshit (Cornhusker Kick Back, Louisiana Purchase, etc.) that the House didn't like through the reconciliation process. She had to turn to her caucus--knowing they weren't going to get a single Republican vote--and ask them to pass a bill they didn't write, from a group of people they didn't trust, and give up the public option. Somehow, once again, she squeezed out the votes. She did her job. I have many friends who can't stand Pelosi, and some who downright hate her. But after Sunday, I defy any of them to call her weak.

Now, I should also mention that I am not completely crazy about this bill. It will be far from perfect even if all of the reconciliation fixes are implemented by the Senate. I am greatly disappointed that there is no public option. I think this would have provided competition for the execrable insurance companies and is the best tool to keep costs down. I would have liked to have seen Medicare made available to people at the age of 55. I have serious concerns about the "Cadillac tax" not going into effect until 2018. And of course, there's always the issue of whether the bill will be effective and/or too costly.

On the first count, we aren't going to know for awhile. On the second, well, we aren't going to know for awhile. What we do know is the non-partisan Congressional Budget Office has declared that the bill will reduce the deficit by $132 billion dollars over the first ten years, and a whopping $1.3 TRILLION over the next ten. Now, they could be wrong. They have been before and these are only estimates. But these folks are a pretty conservative lot, who are not likely to give a "pie in the sky" outlook. And they could even be wrong in the other direction. There is a possibility that it could save us even more than they have estimated. It should also be noted, that those who opposed the bill on the basis of cost have never shied away from using the CBO's numbers when it has favored their own viewpoint.

So yes, the bill isn't perfect. But there are many good things in it. Here is a run down of what I like about it and when it will take effect:

2010:

--Tax credits for small businesses that provide health insurance to their employees.
--A $5 billion dollar pool for those with pre-existing conditions who cannot get insurance.
--Insurance companies will be barred from denying insurance to children with pre-existing conditions.
--Dependent children will be allowed to stay on their parents insurance plan until the age of 26.
--Health insurance companies will be required to cover preventive services.

2011:

--$11 billion in funding to community health centers.
--The Medicare "doughnut hole" will be closed

2012:

--$3 billion annual fee on pharmaceutical manufacturers will go into place.

2014:

--Federal subsidies will be available to offset the cost of health care for low income families.
--A state based insurance health care exchange will be created that allows the uninsured and small businesses to comparison shop for insurance policies.
--An end to all denials based on pre-existing conditions for everyone.

Not to mention covering 30 million more citizens and no longer allowing insurance companies to arbitrarily raise rates without justification.

I don't know about you, but I think these are some pretty good ideas. I know the opposition has called the bill "Armageddon," and probably worse. But did you know that there are over 200 Republican authored amendments attached to this bill? They had input, they just didn't have final say. That's what happens when you lose both houses of congress and the white house. It was that way for six years under Bush, and people like me had to grim up and deal with it. This is how it works in a democracy. You screw up, the other guy gets a chance.

Of course, many will view this bill as a screw up, and will point to the November mid-terms as their chance to take back both houses of congress. As I said before, it will be awhile before we know if this is a good bill or not, and it is certainly true that those that oppose this legislation will get their chance to take back power. However, from a counter intuitive perspective, I think it's a whole lot better for the Dem's to have an accomplishment to run on than not. Can you imagine what it would be like for the Democrats if they didn't pass this? Not only would they have to deal with the Tea Party movement, but also the loss of their base. At least now, they can say they have some chance.

To be honest with you though, I really don't care about that. If you lose doing what you believe is right, that should be something you're willing to live with. Which is what I think has happened here. And it's astonishing. It's certainly not the norm in today's politics, and on some level it deserves to be celebrated (well, by me anyway). To make a choice to do something that will be remembered versus doing something that will get you re-elected? Really, it happens so infrequently, that I think we fail to recognize it when we see it. To go against the polls, the opposition, the protesters (wasn't that a sight?), and members of your own party to do what you believe must be done to move our nation forward? It takes guts. And to drag enough members of your party with you to get it done? That takes more than guts. Hell, it takes the Force. I for one, was glad to see my President finally use it.

Sumo-Pop
March 21, 2010