A DREAM Deferred

Today was a very good day for the President.

In the same week that he took heated criticism on the left for the compromise he brokered with Republicans on the Bush Tax Cuts, he saw the congress finally repeal the discriminatory "Don't Ask Don't Tell" policy.

Created by President Clinton in 1993 as a compromised measure to advance (if only incrementally) gay service in the military, the policy has been roundly denounced as un-American, bigoted, and worse. The very idea that one must lie about and cover up who they are to serve our country on the field of battle flies in the face of not only what this country is supposed to stand for, but in that of human decency as well.

Well, the end has begun today. Previously, Senate Democrats had attempted to force the policy change by attaching it to the military funding bill that hit the floor this week. As usual, Senate Republicans filibustered the bill and blocked its procession. That could have been the end of it. Not only for now, but for years to come. With the House set to change control over to Republican hands and the Democrat's owning a slimmer margin in the Senate, it would have likely been another four years before this issue would be taken up again. Four years of dismissals of qualified military personnel while we are fighting two wars. Many of whom are absolutely integral to our Middle Eastern policy.

However, Senate Majority Leader, Harry Reid struck a compromise with Maine Republican, Susan Collins, on a "stand alone" bill to repeal DADT. The measure quickly passed the House and cleared the Senate at 3:30 PM today by a vote of 63-31. In the end, Republicans Scott Brown (MA), Olympia Snowe (ME), George Voinovich (OH), and Mark Kirk (IL), joined Collins and the entirety of the Democratic Caucus (minus Joe Manchin (WV) who voted against and Ron Wyden (OR) who was having cancer related surgery) in passing the repeal.

This is a huge victory for the President. This keeps a promise that he made during the campaign and may even make some of those angry liberals smile--for the moment anyway. But, we should also acknowledge the other the vote that took place today that did not go the President's way.

Prior to the DADT repeal vote, the Senate took up the DREAM ACT which would create a path to citizenship for children who were brought to this country before the age of 16 and who complete two years of service in the military or a four year college degree within a six year period. The argument for the bill is that these children were brought illegally to this country by no fault of their own, have assimilated into our culture, and have something to offer to society. The bill was defeated as Democrats could not gain the 60 votes needed to get past the Republican filibuster.

The failure of the DREAM ACT to receive passage could be considered a defeat for President Obama. But is it really?

Legislatively, there can be no argument that it was indeed a disappointment for the President (not to mention the scores of immigrants who would have been helped by the bill). But politically, this may actually be a win for the President.

How, you might ask?

Well, if a Republican wants to beat the President in 2012, he/she will need at least 40% of the Hispanic vote to overtake the incumbent. I would argue that today, the Republican Party can kiss that vote goodbye.

There is no one constituency that would have been more positively impacted by (and was more in favor of) The DREAM ACT than Latinos. In winning the election in 2000 (sort of) and 2008, George W. Bush reached out effectively to Hispanics through his support of comprehensive immigration reform and even speaking Spanish at rallies. It is accurate to say that the inroads he made with the Latino community (along with Supreme Court intervention--I know, I know, let it go) played a huge part in his election "victories." Say what you want about Bush, but he was fairly forward thinking on the issue of Hispanic outreach.

As of today, that is all gone.

For this, you can credit Harry Reid with bringing the cloture vote to the floor in the first place. Reid knew that the measure would not pass (5 Democrats joined their Republican counterparts), but he also knew that he would get them on the record. And that he did. Not a single Republican supported an "up or down" vote.

This may play well with their base at the moment, but long term this vote today is a serious loser for them. There is no demographic in the United States that is growing at a faster rate than that of Hispanics. While--by far--most of them are already legal citizens, they know many among their number who are not. These people are friends and loved ones who came to this country seeking a better life, just like the Europeans who crested the waves of these shores oh so long ago. And what the Republicans have told them today is that even if it's not your fault, even if you have broken no other laws, and even if you have assets to share with this country, you are not welcome.

I bet the Cherokee would have liked to have had the same option when Plymouth Rock landed on them.

I suppose that it may be a bit crass to discuss the political implications of this vote when it will adversely affect so many. But just like DADT when it was adopted nearly 20 years ago, this vote could likely lead to another that will find favor. Maybe in this President's second term.

A term that Republicans have all but secured today.

Sumo-Pop
December 18, 2010